The Mortgage Cliff

The term “mortgage cliff” refers to the financial shock faced by homeowners whose low fixed-rate mortgages, secured during the COVID-19 pandemic, are now expiring. During the pandemic, the RBA dropped the cash rate to an unprecedented 0.10%, sparking a surge in fixed-rate loans as borrowers sought to lock in historically low rates.

Fast forward to today, and these fixed-rate loans, many locked in at rates around 2%, are transitioning to variable rates exceeding 6%. For many Australians, this means a sharp increase in monthly mortgage repayments, often by thousands of dollars.

This has created mortgage stress for many borrowers, especially as the cash rate is at 4.35%. However, the anticipated widespread defaults have largely been avoided, thanks to strong savings buffers, reduced discretionary spending, and high employment levels.

What Does the Mortgage Cliff Look Like In 2024-2025?

While the worst of the mortgage cliff may be behind us, challenges persist. According to recent data:

• Rising Monthly Repayments: Homeowners are facing increases of $1,000 to $2,500+ in their monthly repayments. For example, a $700,000 loan fixed at 2% could see repayments jump from $2,967 to $4,770 at a 6.6% variable rate. (Note: These figures are based on a 25-year loan term and calculated using our repayment calculator.)
• Mortgage Prison: Many homeowners are finding themselves in “mortgage prison,” unable to refinance due to reduced borrowing capacity caused by stricter lending criteria and higher interest rates.
• Variable Rate Pressures: As of early 2025, variable rates remain high, though the big four banks forecast rate cuts later in the year.

Cash Rate Predictions For 2025

Here’s what the nation’s big four banks have to say about the RBA’s predicted movements into 2025:

• ANZ expects the cash rate to have peaked at 4.35%, with the first reductions anticipated around May 2025.
• CommBank also believes 4.35% is the peak, forecasting the first rate cut to take place in February 2025.
• NAB economists share the view that 4.35% marks the peak, predicting the initial cuts will occur around May 2025.
• Westpac projects that the cash rate has reached its highest point at 4.35%, with the first reductions likely in May 2025.

How Much Will My Interest Rate Increase?

Based on the forecasts, we can predict how much many borrowers’ monthly repayments will increase when they reach the mortgage cliff. Let’s assume a borrower had a fixed interest rate of 2% in April 2021 before the first interest hike. Based on the current RBA cash rate of 4.35%, standard variable rates are averaging 6.85% in late 2024. Here’s how monthly repayments would change for various loan amounts:

Note: These figures are based on a 25-year loan term and calculated using our repayment calculator.

How Do I Prepare For The Mortgage Cliff?

If you feel like you are about to fall off a mortgage cliff. Here are some things you can do to prepare for it.

• Do a budget to see if you can afford the new interest rate. You can do this by allocating your essential expenses and seeing how much cashflow you have remaining.
• Contact your broker at least two months prior to your fixed rate maturing so that you can start making plans ahead. If you do not have a broker, finding one would be very helpful for you, as they have the expertise to help you through the process.
• Try to find out your revert rate and negotiate with your bank to bring down your interest rate. You can check how much they offer new customers to help in the negotiation for a lower rate.
• You should start saving now to create a buffer to be on the safe side. A large savings will help greatly.
• Consolidate your debt. If you have many debts, such as car loans and credit-card balances, you can consolidate them into one loan. Check with your broker to see if your lender allows this. If you only have one set of recurring repayments with one interest rate, you’ll have better control of your money and a more precise timeline for when the debt can be paid off. It will also probably be cheaper.
• Brokers can help you change your loan term back to 30 years if you feel like repayments will be too high for you to handle based on your current term. Paying the same balance over a longer term result in lower monthly repayments. Before you do this, however, make sure you understand the risks. You will end up paying more over the life of the loan and you must be sure that you won’t retire and lack the means to repay the loan before the term ends.
• Look at refinancing options. Remember, however, that this option comes with costs, such as mortgage discharge fees, valuation fees, and break costs. And if the equity in your property is less than 20%, you may have to pay Lender’s Mortgage Insurance. Many banks offer cashback, which can be used to cover some of your discharge costs if your bank is unwilling to lower your rate.
• If you feel like you will not be able to make repayments, you can reach out to your lender’s financial hardship team. Any hardship request will take some time to process, so make sure to speak to them as early as possible.
• It would help if you cut down on discretionary expenses like
  • Credit card debts. You can close credit cards that you do not use.
  • Unnecessary spending. You may choose to spend wisely during this time to reduce your costs as much as possible. For example, eating at home instead of going out for lunch or dinner or putting off your travel plans for now.
  • Close subscriptions that are not essential.
  • Change phone and utility providers if there are less costly options.
• Look for ways of increasing your earnings
  • Renting out part of your property
  • Starting a side business if you have the time and resources.
  • Speaking to your employer about possibly increasing your salary.

How Can Home Loan Experts Help Me Navigate The Mortgage Cliff?

We have an excellent customer care team that is always looking out for you.

• We have been contacting customers whose fixed-term loans are maturing and preparing them for the eventual change in their interest rates.
• We explore ways to create a buffer in our clients’ budgets so they can prepare for the rise in repayments and don’t feel imprisoned in their mortgages.
• We will help negotiate variable interest rates with clients’ lenders after their fixed term has expired. For those who are looking to refinance, we will explore the market for the most competitive interest rate.

Let The Experts Help You

This is a very trying time for homebuyers coming out of their fixed-rate mortgages, and we have been helping customers traverse the mortgage cliff. If you are worried, call us at 1300 889 743 or fill in our free online assessment form, to speak with one of our expert brokers today!